While we await the conclusion of Serie A, Premier League and La Liga, we look ahead to the transfer window, and consider what options big clubs have if they miss out on their primary target, wether they be cheaper or younger, we think that these options could be more sensible for a big club than splashing the cash.
The first player we look at is maybe the most coveted player in world football, Borussia Dortmund’s 20 year old wide man Jadon Sancho, we imagine it would cost in excess of £100 million to prise him from Signal Iduna Park, so who could some cheaper, more sensible options for big clubs who miss out on the Englishman.
Why do clubs want Sancho?
While it seems reasonably obvious, for the sake of argument, let’s see why Borussia Dortmund are demanding such a fee for Sancho. He has scored 17 goals this season, and assisted 16, the only player to score and assist over 15 in the Bundesliga last campaign, paired with the fact that he is only 20, that would always raise the eyebrows of big clubs. Sancho has also scored more than xG would suggest that he deserved this season, meaning paired with his 2.2 key passes and 2.4 dribbles per 90 (whoscored), he is a very clinical finisher as well as a prolific creator, so it is obvious why superclubs are desperate for his signature. His combined xG and xA is 0.97 (understat) which is absolutely elite, meaning that i have quite a task on my hands if I am to find a player who can really display similar output, but let’s explore 4 options that big clubs should consider before forking out on Sancho.
So what are we looking for?
Here we are not looking at youth as much as we are raw output, as Sancho is incredibly young, it is very hard to find many other youngsters who put up numbers quite like him, so we are looking for players who display similar shot, key pass and dribble numbers to Sancho, who will cost no more than £50 million, from a shortlist of 13, I have whittled it down to 4 players who we think could potentially be an alternative to the wonderkid.
Filip Kostić, Eintracht Frankfurt
At first glance this seems a little absurd, why would a team such as Manchester United or Real Madrid buy a 27 year old Filip Kostić instead of a 20 year old Englishman in Jadon Sancho?
Born in 1992 in former Yugoslavia, Filip Kostić spent his youth at Radnički Kragujevac, he made his senior debut for them at the age of 17, where he showed his impressive pace and technical ability, in 2012 this earned him a move to Eredivise side Groningen, where he initially struggled to make an impact, but he showed his class in a game against Go Ahead Eagles in which he provided two assists, paving the path for him to become a top playmaker. It did, however take him over a year to score his first Groningen goal. Two years after making the move to The Netherlands, he arrived on German shores for the first time, playing for VfB Stuttgart, moving for an estimated fee of £6 million, he spent two years at Die Schwaben, in the second Stuttgart were relegated to Bundesliga 2, but he impressed enough in their relegation season of 2015/16, with a huge xA of 10.77 (understat), to earn a club record move to Hamburg, he slowed down in his first season there, but in his second he was their most impressive player as Hamburg were relegated for the first time in their history, finally making a move to Eintracht Frankfurt at the age of 24, initially on loan. With the firepower of Sebastian Haller, Luka Jovic and Ante Rebic, Kostić had no issues, notching up 6 goals and 11 assists, as Frankfurt made it to a Europa League semi final. This season, however has been the making of Filip Kostić, with all their goalscorers stripped from them he has had to, for the lack of a better term, carry Eintracht.
It has taken him a while, but Kostić has now realised the potential he showed as a youngster, so how come we suggest him as a potential alternative to Sancho? Well, on the ball, as a creator he has all the qualities of Sancho, he has provided 11 assists in the Bundesliga this season, while not quite Sancho’s 16 he has 11.79 expected, which is ever so slightly better than Sancho (understat), he also makes 2.4 key passes per 90 for Frankfurt, better than Sancho’s 2.2, and his 2.5 dribbles is slightly better than Sancho’s 2.4 (whoscored), this suggests that in a team with strikers who are as clinical as those that Sancho has at his disposal, Kostić could well put up the 15-16 assists needed to replicate Sancho. One thing that Kostić has that Sancho does not is an impressive defensive work rate, this season, Kostić has 1.8 tackles and 0.8 interceptions per 90 (whoscored), not outrageous, but good considering the offensive output that he has in tandem with that, although he has often played as a wing back for Frankfurt, so he has been given defensive duties which Sancho has not. There is, however one jarring aspect of his game that he lacks that Sancho has in abundance, goals. Kostić takes 2.7 shots per game, but only has 4 goals in the Bundesliga this season, this compares to Sancho’s 1.6 shots per 90 (whoscored), with 17 goals, they are closer when we look at xG, but there is still a gulf in that regard.
So how easy will it be to prise Kostić from Frankfurt? Put simply, not very. Rumour has it that they turned down a £40 million bid from Inter last summer, but that may have been due to them losing all other valuable assets and him being a year younger, I think that if unsettled, it would be possible to acquire the Serbia international for that kind of fee this summer. Would this be a sensible investment? This depends on what aspect of Sancho’s game you want, if it is his goals you should look elsewhere, but for possibly a third of the price you are getting a player who is replicating his creative numbers, and would likely get more assists at a better team, albeit a player 7 years Sancho’s senior. To whomever it may be, it is my view that Filip Kostić has earned a big move, even if it is late in his career.
Domenico Berardi, Sassuolo
You probably remember this man’s name appearing in the papers linked with big clubs when he was a youngster, but at the age of 25, Domenico Berardi remains a very viable option for big clubs looking for an alternative to Sancho.
Berardi was born in Cariati, Italy and by the age of 13 he was already on the books of Cosenza, before making his move to Sassuolo at the age of 16, and the rest is history. He made his debut in Serie B at the age of 18, he immediately hit the ground running scoring his first goal for the club in his second game against Crotone. He helped Sassuolo to the Serie B title that season, scored 11 goals on the way and won Serie B player of the season. Juve pounced, agreeing a co-ownership deal with Sassuolo for the youngster, although he stayed at Sassuolo for another season, he scored 16 goals in his first Serie A season, including all 4 in a 4-3 victory at the San Siro. Berardi just got better and better, his loan deal was renewed, and he finished the 2014/15 season with 15 goals and 10 assists, and reached 30 career goals quicker than Messi did, at the end of this season Sassuolo finally reached an agreement with Juventus for the full ownership of Mimmo. He started the 2016/17 season in outrageous form, helping the Neroverdi to the Europa League group stages, but his season was halted by knee ligament damage, which sidelined him for around 5 months. The Italian has been described in comparison with Baggio and Del Piero, but injuries have stopped him from reaching the absolute pinnacle of the game, which there is no doubt he had the potential to do. He has become a Sassuolo icon, becoming their all time top goalscorer, and one of their best players of all time, but is it time for him to move on to bigger and better things?
Despite his injury problems, Domenico Berardi has been very impressive in the last few seasons, no more that this season, where he has really impressed as Sassuolo sit 10th with 30 games played at the time of writing. He has scored 11 goals and assisted 6 so far this season, which is running hot with an xG of 8.8 and xA of 5.3, suggesting he has been very clinical this season, like Sancho, and his combined xG and xA this season is 0.64 (understat), which is impressive, although, as he plays for Sassuolo, you would imagine that in a better side he would put up better numbers. One thing that Berardi does better than Sancho is take shots, he has 3.7 shots per 90 this season, over double Sancho’s 1.6, he completes 1.8 key passes, not far off Sancho’s 2.2, although he lags behind with dribbles, with only 1.4 per game compared to the Englishman’s 2.4 although he is fouled 2.2 times per game, much more than Sancho (whoscored). Obviously Berardi is not as good as Sancho, but he has decent creative numbers, and very good shot numbers, if a big club takes a gamble on him, he could even exceed Sancho’s output, although the Dortmund man is 5 years younger than the Italian.
There is no doubt that Berardi would be far more difficult to prise out of Sassuolo than Kostić, he is a one club man, and is a Sassuolo icon, so it would be hard to convince him to leave, although I’m sure a reasonable pay rise would do the trick. Berardi is a risk, as he has had his injury problems over the past few seasons, although if you can keep him fit, he would be a reasonably low risk signing as he has been very impressive throughout his career as long as he’s stayed away from the treatment room. It is reasonable to assume that a bid of around £25 million would be enough to tempt Sassuolo into a sale, as that is the type of money a mid-table Serie A club would find hard to turn down, a more risky option, but a potentially worthwhile signing if you can get him for that price.
Mounir Chouiar, Dijon FCO
For our next player we take a trip to Burgundy, Chouiar may be a player you know little about but he has been outstanding for Dijon this season, and his numbers paired with his youth could make him a perfect Sancho alternative.
Mounir Chouiar grew up in the small town of liévin, in the Pas-de-Calais region of France, in that same region is the football club where he started, CS Avion whom he joined when he was 6.In 2007 he then joined Ligue 2 side RC Lens where he spent the majority of his youth career. He made his Lens debut in July 2016 against Niort. Chouiar proceeded to spend 4 further seasons at Lens, where he caught the eye of Ligue 1 outfit Dijon. On deadline day in September 2019, he made a move worth around £3 million to Dijon, where the now 21 year old has impressed, scoring 4 goals this campaign. He plays primarily off the left, but also occasionally in the middle, Chouiar has emerged as one of France’s elite dribblers, and has impressed with his hard work tracking back and delivery, if he can improve his final product and his discipline, with a red card this season, there is no doubt he can be a top player.
Unlike Berardi and Kostić, Chouiar has the youth of Sancho, being 21, but does he have the numbers, well the answer to that is emphatically yes. Chouiar may only have 4 goals and 0 assists on his record this season, but by xG he should have 3-4 assists this season (understat), so in a more clinical attack he would have scored more, he has been the outstanding dribbler in Ligue 1 this season, other than Neymar. He has completed 3.5 dribbles per 90, much better than Sancho’s 2.4, he has a success rate of 63%, better than the likes of Mbappé and Neymar, Sancho’s success rate is a mere 52%, so in that respect, Chouiar is better than Sancho in nearly every regard. Chouiar takes 2 shots per 90, better than the Englishman’s 1.6 (whoscored), although Sancho’s shots tend to be from better areas, hence his xG per 90 of 0.42 compared to the Frenchman’s 0.19 (understat). Chouiar also matches Sancho’s 2.2 key passes per 90, although is dwarfed in assists. Although Chouiar likes to cut in from the left like Sancho, he is better at hitting the byline, with 1.7 crosses per 90 far more than Sancho, although Sancho plays more as an inside forward than a traditional winger like Chouiar. As mentioned, Mounir Chouiar’s defensive work rate deserves a lot of praise, he has 1.7 tackles and 0.7 interceptions per 90 (whoscored), suggesting he is a youngster hungry to impress, which is never a bad thing. There is no doubt than coming up from Ligue 2 Mounir Chouiar has adapted to life in a top European division impressively, and with a bit of work he could be one of the world’s best dribblers, and could get even better than Sancho, the numbers are at that level.
Out of all the options presented so far, Mounir Chouiar would be the most risky investment, he is an unknown quantity having only spent one full season in a top league, but his numbers suggest that with better teammates he could become as good as Sancho, even if his raw numbers this season have pale in comparison. He is 21 so you could get 10 seasons out of him unlike Kostić or Berardi, and I would be surprised if Dijon turned sown bids of any more than £10 million. This would be an exciting prospect, although I would maybe wait a season to see if Chouiar is the real deal before making a move.
Marcus Edwards, Vitória de Guimarães
The only option who does not come out of one of Europe’s top 5 leagues, he is, like Sancho, a player who left a Premier League club for a club overseas to kick start his career, and since making the move to Portugal, Marcus Edwards has impressed hugely.
Marcus Edwards became part of the Tottenham Hostpur academy system when he was 8, at the age of 18 he signed his first senior contract with the club, despite impressing in training, Edwards only made one appearance of Spurs, in the EFL cup. In that same year he had serious injury problems which led to surgery and a sizeable layoff. After minimal game time, he joined Championship club Norwich City in January 2018 on loan until the end of the season, but he only lasted 4 months at the club after making only a solitary appearance. For the 2018/19 season, he was on loan at Excelsior in the Eredivise, where he showed just how good on the ball he can be, on Deadline day in September 2019, he finally made a permanent move away from Spurs, joining Liga Nos side Vitória, where he has really come into his own.
At Vitória he has played primarily on the right in a 433 system, meaning that there is quite a lot of reliance on him to press, which he has done well this season, the 21 year old has 0.8 tackles and 0.6 interceptions per 90 this season (whoscored) this means in a pressing system, you know Edwards will flourish, whereas this is not a particularly refined aspect of Sancho’s game. Edwards, like Chouiar is an outstanding dribbler, he has completed 3.1 dribbles per 90 this campaign, the most in Liga Nos, better than Sancho’s 2.4 per 90 (whoscored). Marcus Edwards is, however a very direct player who tends to prefer to attempt a take on rather than play in a teammate, leading to his creative numbers suffering as a result, with his mere 1.3 key passes per game the only real hole in his numbers, encouraging as a 21 year old, as you would fancy him to learn to pick his head up more as his career progresses. Edwards also matches the 1.6 shots per 90 of his fellow countryman having scored 6 goals in Liga Nos this season, not bad considering this is one of his first seasons of regular minutes. Marcus Edwards’ numbers are very good, although signing a player from Liga Nos is always a risk, but his numbers suggest that with a bot of maturing to do, he could be a fantastic player.
As mentioned, Marcus Edwards has some serious work to do before being a viable option to replicate Sancho’s output, but the groundwork is certainly there, and he is clearly a naturally fantastic dribbler. A big club could well take a risk with him, and I would be surprised if he cost any more than £25 million, as he is not playing for Portugal’s elite, it could be a very interesting option for a club to take up, but maybe the least viable of the four.
So there we have it, four players who big clubs should consider signing before spending big on Sancho, while none of these are guaranteed to be brilliant, they would certainly be cheaper, and in a couple of cases could grow to even exceed Sancho. In my opinion, of the four, your best bet is Kostić, we know just how good he is, and in a better team than Frankfurt, despite being 7 years older than Sancho he would be a quality signing.
By Viktor Schlatte
Football 37 