The summer transfer window is in full swing, and for good or ill, numerous big-money moves have already gone through, but here we are going to look at a player who has been linked to moves to big clubs, and see what alternative options there could be, that should be considered before big clubs splash the cash.
The third player we are looking at in this series is the first whom I think would be a genuinely bad move for the clubs linked with him. Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez has been strongly linked to moves to Manchester United and Juventus, but due to the Mexican international being 29 years old and reports suggesting that the player would only move for a fee of around £70 million, which seems ludicrous, our focus here will be on mostly age and price, the two main issues with the move.
Why do clubs want Jiménez?
While I think this would be a poor move for the buying party, this is not because I think that Jiménez is a bad player, far from it. The Mexico international has 17 goals and 6 assists in the Premier League last season, making him 7th placed Wolves’ top scorer, he takes 3.1 shots per 90 which is 3rd in the Premier League rankings, he is also very creative, with xG suggesting that he should have laid on more like 7 or 8 assists this season, and his 1.3 key passes and 1.6 dribbles are both very impressive. His xG per 90 is a very impressive 0.45 in the league, considering that he doesn’t necessarily have the most support going forward in Nuno’s 3/5 at the back system, this is especially impressive. There is no doubt that Jiménez is a very good player, but I think that for less than what Wolves are asking, and at a lesser age than 29, there could be some serious alternatives on the market.
So what are we looking for?
In this case it will be hard to find a cheap, young player with Jiménez’ output, simply due to the hype that surrounds young strikers, so we are looking for players who’s underlying numbers potentially line up with those of Jiménez’ and who we could see exceeding him in the future, when Jiménez will be well past his best, as always, this will be difficult, but I have no doubt that we can find some interesting alternatives.
Musa Barrow, Bologna
The first player we are looking at here is the one with the fewest similarities to Jiménez, Bologna’s Musa Barrow is not a natural number 9, but having occasionally played there this season, I think the 21 year old could have what it takes to be a Jiménez alternative.
Barrow moved to Atalanta at the age of 18 from the Gambia and spent a few years in the youth squad there, mainly operating as a midfielder, he impressed hugely in the youth team and Gasperini called him up to the senior squad in the 2017/18 season, he made a few substitute appearances that season picking up 3 goals and 2 assists. Despite this he still did not get all that much game time the following 2 seasons, getting just 749 minutes in the whole of 2018/19 and the first half of 2019/20. In January 2020, Barrow sought a move elsewhere, and he got it, joining Bologna on loan with obligation to buy, he has impressed hugely there, and the 21 year old has quickly become a key player for Mihajlović’s men, and was one of Bologna’s top scorers over the course of the season, despite only joining in January.
When looking at Barrow’s stats we will only be looking at his time at Bologna, where he scored 9 and assisted 2 over the course of 18 appearances, very promising, and stretched over the course of a whole season, he could well be able to come very close to Jiménez’s 17 goals and 6 assists. Barrow actually betters Jiménez in all key attacking metrics, he takes a huge 3.6 shots per 90, even better than Jiménez’s 3.1, which was 3rd best in the Premier League, his 1.9 key passes and dribbles also betters Jiménez’s 1.3 and 1.6 respectively, this is extremely promising that a young attacker, playing for a much weaker side than Wolves is able to not just match but better the numbers displayed from one of Europe’s most well-regarded strikers. xG, however, suggests that Barrow has got some catching up to do, with his xG and xA combined adding up to 0.57 expected goal involvements per game, which is considerably weaker than Jiménez’s 0.65, that said, Barrow has outperformed xG at his time at Bologna so far, but that could suggest that he is just running hot for the time being rather than being a truly elite finisher. It is clear that Barrow has most of the materials to be a possible Jiménez alternative at the age of 21, however there is one key matter, being that he is not really the out and out number 9 that teams are looking for in Jiménez. Barrow has played 5 of his Bologna games at the number 9 position, and has just 1 goal and 1 assist in that position, this suggests that Barrow prefers to play on the wing, although, with him being just 21, he could become a proper number 9 in future years if played there more often, but it is that which sadly stops him from being a perfect alternative to the Mexican.
Bologna have an obligation to buy Barrow from Atalanta for €13 million, which seems a steal, and reports suggest that they would demand at least £31 million for the Gambia international, this being less than half than Wolves’ rumoured asking price for Jiménez this would seem a risk, but surely one worth taking more than moving for Jiménez, considering the financial upside, and the fact that he is a huge 8 years younger. Musa Barrow is a very exciting player, and I have a feeling that we could hear a whole lot about him in the next years.
André Silva, Eintracht Frankfurt
Our next player is another one who is currently out on loan, but in André Silva we have a player who has showed promise in the pass, but failed to live up to it until this season, where, on loan at Frankfurt from Milan, the Portugal international has flourished.
André Silva joined Porto’s junior ranks at the age of 15, at the age of 17 he started playing regularly for the B team, he generally impressed there, and made his Porto first team debut at the age of 20, in the 2015/16 campaign, Silva struggled for minutes, as Porto had huge depth in the number 9 position, but due to injuries and a managerial change, opportunities became more frequent for him, and he started getting regular game time, and going into the 2016/17 season he was the club’s first choice striker, and he impressed so much that season that AC Milan took a punt on him, and he signed for the Nerazzuri for around €40 million. Silva showed decent form in the Europa League at first, including scoring Milan’s first European hat trick since 2006, that said he really struggled in Serie A, scoring just twice in his only full season there. The following campaign Silva was loaned out to Sevilla, where he did better, but his 9 league goals were not enough to tempt them to activate their €35 million buy out option. At the start of this season, it looked like he would stay at Milan, until a deal was agreed with Eintracht Frankfurt that saw him join the club on a 2 year loan deal, with Ante Rebić going to Milan on loan, while he struggled at the season’s beginning, André Silva has thrived since the Coronavirus restart, and, now 24, he seems to be showing the promise that he showed at Porto initially.
In just over 1500 minutes this season, Silva has scored 12 and assisted 3 for Frankfurt this season, as they finished in a mediocre 9th place in the Bundesliga, considering that in he is just 5 goals and 3 assists off Jiménez’s total for the season in fewer than half the minutes of the Mexican, this represents a pretty good showing from the Portugese international. Despite this, Silva is comfortably behind in most key metrics, with his 2.2 shots nowhere near Jiménez’s 3.1, and him completing under half as many dribbles as Jiménez, although they are more or less even by key passes. While this is not exactly ideal, Silva comfortably leads Jiménez by xG, with his combined xG and xA being a handsome 0.92, much better than the Wolves man’s 0.65, this shows that Silva picks far more opportune times to shoot than Jiménez, and it is worth noting that at 24, Silva is 5 years younger than Jiménez, so there is scope for him to improve, and if Silva can sustain some of the form he has shown recently, I am without doubt that he is capable of surpassing Jiménez.
The question of Silva’s purchase is a very difficult one to approach with the player currently out on loan with no obvious buy out clause in the loan. Milan signed the player for €40 million, and the buyout in the Sevilla loan from last season was €35 million, so that is probably the ballpark we would be looking at, but without doubt he would be cheaper than Jiménez, and 5 years younger. If a deal could be struck with Milan worth less than €35 million then I would urge clubs to consider, but any more than €40 million would be an overpayment in my eyer, so this is a very tricky one, but one thing that is for sure is that Silva looks well on his way to a career revival.
Ezequiel Avila, Osasuna
2019/20 was a great season for newly promoted Osasuna, and while they do have several very impressive players in their ranks, it is clear that probably their most important player this season has been Ezequiel ‘Chimy’ Avila, and the 26 year old has proven himself to be one of the best, most potent strikers in La Liga.
Chimy Avila spent his early career in Argentina, with Tiro Federal, in his early seasons with the club he impressed, and he earned himself a move to top division side, San Lorenzo at the age of 21. It never really worked out for Chimy at the Buenos Aires club, and he was sent out on a two year loan to second tier Spanish side, Huesca, in the first season of his loan, he played a key role, as Huesca came second in the Segunda, and were promoted, with Avila scoring 7. While Huesca only spent one season in La Liga before relegation, it is fair to say that Avila made a name for himself as a very agressive striker, picking up a massive 11 yellow cards that season, but he also made a mark in a good way, with him registering 10 goals and 2 assists as Huesca were relegated in 19th. As he returned to Argentina from loan, he caught the eye of newly promoted Osasuna, and made a move for a ludicrously cheap £2.5 million, and this season, despite serious injury problems, he has proven himself to be a very good striker, and could be a great replacement for Jiménez.
In around 1600 minutes in La Liga this season, Chimy Avila scored 9 and assisted 2, so while that is very far off Jiménez’s total for the season, had he not been injured, I have no doubt that he would have been able to score several more, this is reflected in Avila’s xG which is marginally better than that of Jiménez, with his combined xG and xA per 90 adding up to 0.69 expected goal involvements in La Liga this season, marginally better than Jiménez’s 0.65, so over the course of a full season, you would expect that Avila would get around as many goal involvements as the Mexico international. Avila is one of few players in Europe who can boast to be taking more shots per 90 than Jiménez, with his 3.5, bettering Jiménez’s 3.1, although Avila is not much of a dribbler, he completes half as many dribbles per 90 as Jiménez, he also completes marginally fewer key passes than the Wolves centre forward. One thing that Avila does not have compared to other options we see here, is age. The Argentine is 26, only 3 years younger than Jiménez, so there is not all that much scope to improve, he is unlikely to get much better than he is at present, although his stats look promising, this could well be a factor that turns clubs away from Avila.
Players who are as strong, quick and aggressive, and can score goals, like Avila will never come cheap, which is why Avila is a great option. Reports suggest that the little Argentine has a €25 million release clause in his Osasuna contract, considering how good he is, the fact that he is 3 years younger and just over a third of the price of Jiménez, while he may not have all that much upside, Ezequiel ‘Chimy’ Avila could be a great option for any club not willing to spend Wolves’ asking price for Jiménez on a number 9.
Alexander Sørloth, Trabzonspor
The final player we are looking at would be by far the riskiest investment, as we look at a 24 year old Norwegian striker, who failed to score once in the league in the year he spent at Crystal Palace, but seems not to just be finding his feet, but scoring for fun in Turkey’s Süper Lig.
Alexander Sørloth spent the majority of his youth career at Norwegian club Rosenborg, he impressed hugely at the youth ranks and scored his first goal for the club on his debut in the Europa League against Crusaders. Despite this he was sent out on loan to Bodø/Glimt, where he was excellent, even scoring 6 goals in one game, but this was not enough to convince Rosenborg to give him a chance, and he was sold to Gronigen for under €1 million. He struggled in the Eredivise, and was sold the next summer to Midtjylland in Denmark, after 3 goals and 3 assists for Gronigen. This is where he really found form, as Midtjylland’s main number 9, in half a season he scored 10 and assisted 8, earning him a move to Crystal Palace in Januaryworth around £8 million. He struggled in the Premier League, playing just 16 times in the league before a loan move to Genk the following January. At the start of the 2019/20 season, Sørloth was sent out on a 2 year loan to Trabzonspor, and in Turkey he has been on fire in front of goal, and maybe his journeyman career could begin to pay off, as he is linked to big moves.
And what a season it has been for Sørloth and Trabzonspor, he has helped them to second place in the Süper Lig and scored 24 goals in the process, picking up the golden boot. When picking out a player who plays outside Europe’s top leagues to possibly get a big move, you really look for absolutely monstrous stats, and I think that we have found that from the 6 foot 4 Norwegian. His 24 goals and 8 assists are absolutely ludicrous, and obviously much better than Jiménez’s stats in the Premier League this season. Sørloth does, however take marginally fewer shots than Jiménez, with his 2.9 slightly less than Jiménez’s 3.1, the Norwegian also lacks slightly on key passes, with his 1 less than Jiménez’s 1.3, although that is because Sørloth is more of an out and out target man, with most of his assists coming from flick-ons or holding up play, because of this, Sørloth is fouled far more than Jiménez and completes more dribbles. Sørloth’s combined xG and xA amounts to 0.71, very impressive, and betters Jiménez’s 0.65. While one would imagine that Sørloth’s very physical, target man style of play would translate well to a top division, from what we have seen, it does not, this is the obvious risk that clubs need to take on the 24 year old, has he improved enough in Turkey that he could now do it in a top league?
Like André Silva, Sørloth is currently halfway through a two year loan spell, and reports suggest that Trabzonspor have a £5.5 million option to buy, and one would imagine that they would activate this before engaging in negotiations with interested parties. One would imagine that any bid of over £20 million would not be turned down by the club, but it is still a major risk to take on a player who has, so far in his career, failed in top leagues, although being 5 years younger than Jiménez, he could be worth the punt.
Football 37 