It’s that time of the year again, while winter is in full swing, football fans get ready to spend nights on end watching some of Europe’s finest clubs compete in the elusive Champions League knockout stages. While curtailed, last season’s competition was exciting and rife with upsets, and I have no doubt, much like every year, this season it will deliver once again, so how do I think these ties will play out?
RB Leipzig vs Liverpool
This is one of several ties that look very balanced and very exciting, Liverpool’s injury struggles this season have been more than well documented, and going into the first leg 4th in the Premier League and 3 consecutive defeats, Liverpool’s morale will be on the floor, and second place RB Leipzig will be eyeing this up as another opportunity to knock English opposition out of the tournament. I think the deciding factor in this game will end up being Liverpool’s defence, Fabinho, the man who has stepped up impressively since Van Dijk’s infamous injury seems touch and go for the first leg, and should he be unavailable, and the, frankly, poor Ozan Kabak has to step in, I can absolutely see RB Leipzig taking a win away from their ‘home’ tie in Budapest. RB Leipzig have hardly been free scoring since Timo Werner’s departure, no player has more than 4 league goals for them this season, but they have managed to share the goals around, and their defence has been absolutely exceptional, bolstered by the return of Ibrahima Konaté. Should Fabinho not be fit, I can genuinely only see Leipzig winning the first leg, by a 2-0 or 2-1 scoreline. Liverpool’s recent Anfield form has been astonishingly bad, so I struggle to see them coming back should they suffer a defeat in Budapest. This tie looks to be incredibly finely balanced, and I do think it could swing either way, but on this occasion, I think that Nagelsmann will get the better of Klopp, and I think that it will be RB Leipzig to qualify from this tie, making a second consecutive exit at this round of the competition for Liverpool.
Barcelona vs PSG
Without any doubt, this is the headline tie of the round, two European heavyweights going head to head, two teams, who have probably underperformed domestically this season. Credit where credit is due, Ronald Koeman has seemingly turned around a seemingly doomed La Liga season for Barça, with me doubting they would even get top 4 this season they seem to be Atletico Madrid’s nearest competitors for the title, although that doesn’t say much. It is early days of the Pochettino era at PSG, but they do seem to be in a struggle to maintain the Ligue 1 title, with Lyon and Lille both showing no signs of slowing down their title pushes. The key absentee from this game will no doubt be Neymar, PSG will miss him, but they have a glut of attacking talent who can step into the Brazilian’s shoes, and dare I say it, Mbappe has already been acting as their talisman this season. If Mbappe is playing well, he can’t be stopped, it’s that simple, and the same, naturally, goes for Messi, it is the clash of two of the world’s best, and I think whichever of those can make the biggest impact on this tie, will lead their team to the quarter final. There can be absolutely no doubt about Pochettino’s tactical genius, and I very much struggle to see Ronald Koeman being able to outsmart him in this regard, I see an entertaining score draw taking place at the Camp Nou in the first leg, but PSG taking the tie in the second in Paris, but I have no doubt that this will be a champions league tie long remembered, as PSG look to go one step further than they managed last season.
Sevilla vs Borussia Dortmund
This, for me, is another of the more interesting ties on offer for this round. Under Julen Lopetegui, Sevilla have found some consistency, and look likely to come top 4 again this season after winning the Europa League last campaign. I’m sure Lopetegui will be eager to go deep into the competition this season, and why shouldn’t they dream big, they have a very balanced and exciting team, with world class quality located all over the pitch, and up against an unstable, out of form Borussia Dortmund, they have every right to look at themselves as favourites for this game. Borussia Dortmund are a complete mess, simply put, while I think it was the right decision to sack him, Lucien Favre’s departure has not helped matters by any means, with the club sitting in 6th in the Bundesliga, with only 3 league wins in 2021, and their stars look more and more likely to leave. One thing that Dortmund do have, is a couple of players who, if they decide to show their quality, can swing the tie in their direction, obviously I’m referring to Erling Braut Håland, and Jadon Sancho. The latter is only now coming into his best form of the season, and the former has remained consistently brilliant throughout the season, and Jules Kounde and Diego Carlos will have a job on their hands if they are to keep him quiet, good thing they’re as good as they are. Terzić’s inexperience will likely show here up against one of Europe’s finest coaches, and despite their quality, I think Borussia Dortmund’s porous back line will be exposed by the likes of Papu Gomez and Youssef En-Nesyri, so I can only see the Spanish side qualifying here.
Porto vs Juventus
While not what one should call a total mismatch, there seems a certain inevitability about this tie. Porto look a decent side, getting past Marseille to get to this stage of the competition, but look way off Sporting Club in the race for the Portuguese title this season, they also come into the first leg without a win in 3, so it certainly seems as though the balance is swinging firmly against them. Juve sit third in Serie A, but under a young manager like Pirlo, and trying to bed youngsters into the squad, this is not absolutely abhorrent, and with the star quality they possess, Juventus should be comfortably progressing here, that said they have just suffered a dent in their title hopes through a 1-0 defeat to Napoli yesterday (at the time of writing), so may not exactly be in the best of spirits. Sérgio Conceição is an exciting young manager, and far more experienced than his adversary, Pirlo, so this tie is not by any means a foregone conclusion, and should Porto get through, I think it may be as a result of that inexperience. That said, when you have Ronaldo in your team, you have all the champions league experience you need, and Juventus will surely have too much quality for Porto, and I have little doubt that the Old Lady will win both ties and progress to the quarter final, one step further than last season.
Atlético Madrid vs Chelsea
This season has been absolutely unbelievable for Atléti, 5 points clear at the top of La Liga with 2 games in hand, it feels inevitable that Simeone, a man who many doubted after the mass exodus of summer 2019, will finally win his second La Liga title with the mattress makers. As well as this it is hard to look past them as strong contenders for the Champions League this season with the comparative inconsistency of other top clubs. If they are to finally win their elusive Champions league this season, however, they will have to navigate their way around a resurgent Chelsea, bolstered by the appointment of Thomas Tuchel. Defensively, Chelsea have been excellent since Tuchel’s arrival, having only conceded one goal under the German, but if anybody is going to threaten that record, it’s probably Atléti. Luis Suarez and Joao Felix have formed a formidable partnership which is sure to cause Chelsea a fair share of problems, but if Timo Werner can finally find his feet this season, Atléti will face defensive problems of their own. While it is fair to say that Chelsea are looking up, I think this formidable Madrid side will be a step too far for them. Atléti have looked more or less unstoppable this season, and despite their quality, I don’t see Chelsea stopping them from making the quarter final stage this season, I think Simeone’s side will progress comfortably, winning both legs.
Lazio vs FC Bayern
The next step on the road for Bayern’s defence of the Champions League title starts with this very challenging tie against Lazio. On the face of it, Lazio should be way way second favourites here, but I don’t necessarily see it that way. They have had defensive issues this season, but going forward they look very strong, with that contingent including the likes of Immobile, Correa and Luis Alberto. Bayern’s defensive struggles this season have been more than well documented, and anyone who sees them play would note the very high line which they play, a high line which many teams, such as Hoffenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed to exploit this season, and I’m sure that Inzaghi’s men will be told to try to play the ball into that space in behind the centre backs in these games. Bayern are obviously the stronger team here, and a relatively leaky back line will need to be improved a lot by Lazio if they are to keep out their fearsome attacking line. I’m sure Inzaghi will have a game plan here, it’s merely a question of the Lazio players executing it properly, and, as much as I would like to tip an upset here, I think Bayern will end up on top here based purely on the abundance of quality they really have, I can only see the Bavarians going through here.
Atalanta vs Real Madrid
Forever the underdogs, Gasperini’s Atalanta should definitely come into this tie with a degree of confidence, Real Madrid have looked shaky this season and will likely be without captain Sergio Ramos for this tie, and Atalanta have been on good form. There is no doubt that Atalanta haven’t been nearly the team that properly pushed Juventus for the title last season so far this campaign, but have still looked free scoring and exciting to watch. Exciting to watch, however doesn’t equal results, that is football, and I see this tie as a very similar one to their one against PSG last season. Many are tipping Atalanta to do well here and I’m sure they will push Real, but I’m not entirely sure if they will have enough mettle to keep them out. While without Ramos, Real Madrid do still have the likes of Casemiro, Kroos, Benzema and Varane who are incredibly experienced at the Champions League knockout stages and will have too much for Atalanta. Not to mention Atalanta’s leaky defence, and if their failure to win with a 3-0 lead against Torino has anything to show, it is that Atalanta maybe don’t quite have that winning mentality to defeat a giant like Real just yet. As much as I will be rooting for Atalanta, I can only see Real Madrid qualifying for the last eight here, and if they do fail, don’t be surprised to see Zidane leave the Bernabeu.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Manchester City
The final tie of the round is one of the most interesting, while Marco Rose may be on his way to Borussia Dortmund in the summer, I’m sure he’ll be very determined to get Gladbach as deep in the Champions League as he can, but he, of course, faces a very big test here in Manchester City. Gladbach have been very inconsistent in the Bundesliga this season, but do remain in what is a very closely contested Champions League fight. They will have to be at their very best to beat what looks like a Manchester City team who are romping their way to a third Premier League title in four seasons, they look more or less impenetrable at the back, with Ruben Dias looking twice the centre back many had expected him to be, and their front line, including the electric Phil Foden, firing on all cylinders. This won’t be a straightforward affair for City, however, Gladbach have got a very strong defence, and have an attack with more than enough variety and firepower to break down this Manchester City team, and if the likes of Pléa, Stindl, Embolo and Thuram can be on form for this tie, then Manchester City will be in for a whole host of problems. I can definitely see Gladbach causing an upset here, and Pep’s biggest flaw as a coach in the past has been his tendency to overcomplicate his tactics in big Champions League games, look at Spurs a couple of years ago, and OL last season, I can definitely see this happening again, but over the two legs, it’s definitely safer to bet on Manchester City here.
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